The German Advisory group in Ukraine has estimated the losses of the Ukrainian economy from the blockade the movement of goods across the demarcation line in the Donbas 1.6 percent of GDP.
This was stated by the head of the group, Ricardo Giucci, writes DW.com.
“We felt that in uncontrolled areas now produce 1.6% of the GDP of Ukraine”, – he said.
The biggest problem, according to him, will appear in steel production, also tangible will be the impact on the energy industry.
“From a macroeconomic point of view, is undoubtedly a shock for the country. Otherwise the IMF would not stand the allocation of the next tranche of the EFF program, but it’s not a disaster,” – noted German economist.
He explained that in 2013 the production chain in the Donbas were closely connected, but now the situation has changed in three years, integration has become smaller, it is stored primarily in the production of steel.
“For other sectors we do not expect strong shocks. Largely, these two regions already separated. Anthracite and coke can be imported. It will be more expensive, there are logistical issues, but Ukraine can cope with this without major negative consequences,” Giucci noted.
The international monetary Fund postponed consideration of a question on allocation to Ukraine of the tranche. The reason was a need to clarify the macroeconomic indicators of the negative consequences of energy and economic blockade.